Finishing Activity Bounces Back in New Year
Index Posts 3-Point Turn Around After Weak Close to 2021
#economics
The Gardner Business Index (GBI): Finishing more than rebounded in January following its 3-points loss in December. January’s 58.7 sent the Index slightly above its November multi-month high. The latest result places the index back on its accelerating expansion trend first observed in September. The latest gains came from strongly higher readings for new orders, production and backlogs. Joining the list of business components with higher readings was that for supplier deliveries; however, in the present environment higher such readings signal worsening supply chain performance.
January’s results — along with those of the recent past — are yet further proof that finishers are finding ways to do more with less. The month’s 6-point spread between production and employment activity readings was wider than usual by historical standards; however, since COVID, such wide spreads have become more frequent. In short, signs of broken supply chains coupled with a shortage of labor and inflated backlog readings all suggest that market forces are restraining production levels from otherwise making greater gains.
Products Finishing IndexJanuary’s more than 3-point rebound made up for the Index’s losses from a month ago.
Doing More With Less
Gardner’s many measures of business activity suggest that production activity is being restrained by unfilled jobs and struggling supply chains. Supporting this notion, most backlog readings in 2021 were well above typical readings. *Three-month moving averages (3-MMA).
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